专访赖晓明：推进碳市场扩容，研究配额有偿分配｜四中全会预热

Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, with significant growth in trading volume and market participation observed in 2023 [1][2]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in 2023 has increased by 40% compared to the same period last year, indicating a rise in market activity and participant engagement [4]. - The number of key emission units that have opened trading accounts has reached 1,277, contributing to a more diverse market structure [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The expansion of the carbon market to include industries such as steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials has diversified the market, enhancing the richness and variety of market participants [3]. - The quality of market participants has improved, with many companies establishing dedicated carbon asset management departments, leading to a more proactive approach to carbon management [4]. Local Market Dynamics - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue playing a crucial role in supporting local carbon reduction goals and green development, despite a reduction in quota coverage due to the national market's expansion [5][7]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 key emission enterprises, which contributes to its high trading activity [6]. Future Directions - The carbon market is set to transition towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10]. - Plans are in place to include all major industrial emission sectors in the carbon market by 2027, with ongoing research into paid allocation mechanisms to enhance market efficiency [8][9].