SHANGHAI ENVIRONMENT(SH:601200) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-10-14 09:26Core Viewpoint - The national carbon market in China has become the largest in the world, effectively managing over 60% of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, and is evolving towards a model of "paid allocation + total control" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][10]. Market Development - The national carbon market has been operational for four years, with a cumulative trading volume of 728 million tons and a total transaction value of 49.83 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The trading volume in the carbon market has increased significantly, with a 40% growth compared to the same period last year, and trading activity has improved with a 75% increase in transaction volume, number of trading enterprises, and transaction counts in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][3]. Market Structure and Participants - The inclusion of new key emission units has expanded the market's participant base to 1,277 entities, enhancing market diversity and creating more trading opportunities [2]. - The market now covers four major industries: power generation, steel, aluminum smelting, and building materials, which has diversified the market structure and improved trading dynamics [2]. Local Market Role - Local carbon markets, such as Shanghai's, are expected to continue supporting local "dual carbon" goals and green development, even as they face challenges from the national market's expansion [4][6]. - Shanghai's carbon market has over 2,200 registered entities, including around 400 regulated enterprises and 1,800 investment and financial institutions, contributing to high trading activity [5]. Future Directions - The Shanghai Environmental Energy Exchange is focusing on expanding industry coverage, researching paid allocation mechanisms, and promoting market participant diversification [8][9]. - The transition to a "paid allocation + total control" model is a key focus for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with an emphasis on policy coordination between industrial and carbon market policies [10].