Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) 智通财经网·2025-10-14 23:41Core Viewpoint - The market continues to focus on technology trends post-National Day holiday, with the pharmaceutical sector experiencing some capital outflow and relatively volatile performance, but the main logic of innovation remains intact [1] Group 1: Market Performance - After the National Day holiday, the overall market remains dominated by technology trends, while the pharmaceutical sector has seen a phase of capital outflow and is performing relatively weakly [1] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.51%, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector down by 1.20%, ranking 25th among 31 primary sub-industries [1] - The pharmaceutical sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with traditional Chinese medicine and pharmaceutical commerce rising by 1.51% and 0.64% respectively, while other sectors like medical devices and chemical pharmaceuticals saw declines [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to increase allocation to high-quality targets with key data readout catalysts, potential significant BD transaction expectations, and global potential during market dips [1] - In light of the long-term complexities of Sino-US relations, it is recommended to actively select low-valuation, well-structured, and fundamentally sound domestic demand sectors based on Q3 performance [1] Group 3: Q3 Performance Expectations - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see continued performance differentiation in Q3 2025, with some leading innovative drug companies maintaining rapid growth due to optimized product pipelines and international progress [2] - The CRO/CDMO industry is anticipated to stabilize gradually, benefiting from global order recovery and improved operational efficiency [2] - The overall performance of the medical device sector is stable, with certain segments like imaging equipment showing signs of recovery, while some traditional Chinese medicine and medical service companies face short-term growth pressures [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2025, the pharmaceutical sector has achieved a return of 21.87%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.54 percentage points [4] - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 27.0 times PE, with a premium of 16.0% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [4] - The TTM valuation for the pharmaceutical sector stands at 30.9 times PE, which is below the historical average of 34.9 times PE, indicating a premium of 24.4% relative to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [4]