10月降息几成定局？鲍威尔：数据真空令美联储面临挑战

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the U.S. economic outlook remains largely unchanged since the September meeting, with a delicate balance between persistent inflation pressures and a weakening labor market. The market widely anticipates another rate cut at the upcoming meeting at the end of October [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasized that the U.S. is experiencing a phase of "low hiring, low layoffs," with a decline in job vacancies likely to soon impact the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest in a year, and the government shutdown has delayed the release of the September non-farm payroll report, complicating assessments of labor market conditions [2][5]. - Economists are increasingly concerned about the risks to employment, with some suggesting that the Fed is shifting focus from anti-inflation measures to balancing growth and employment [2][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite market expectations for continued easing, Powell reiterated that inflation risks have not been fully resolved, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.9% year-over-year, still above the Fed's 2% target. He indicated that the Fed's task remains to bring inflation back to sustainable levels without harming employment [3][4]. - Powell hinted that the process of reducing the Fed's balance sheet may soon come to an end, suggesting a potential slowdown in quantitative tightening to maintain market liquidity [3][5]. Data Availability and Decision-Making Challenges - The government shutdown has interrupted the release of key economic data, creating uncertainty for the Fed's decision-making process. Powell acknowledged that the Fed may not be able to compensate for the lack of data, particularly for October, which could complicate the situation further [5][6]. - The Fed is relying on alternative data sources to fill the gaps left by the absence of official statistics, but Powell stressed that these cannot fully replace government data [4][5]. Market Expectations - Investors generally expect the Fed to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months, with projections indicating a cumulative rate cut of about 50 basis points by the end of the year. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recently fell to 4.03%, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets [5][6].