鲍威尔讲话：缩表即将告终，将重启降息！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Powell, is nearing the end of its quantitative tightening efforts, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy to support liquidity in the financial system [1][14] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet liabilities total $6.5 trillion, with $2.4 trillion in Federal Reserve notes, $3.0 trillion in reserves, and approximately $800 billion in the Treasury General Account [4] - The asset side consists mainly of $4.2 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $2.1 trillion in government-backed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [5] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Powell highlighted signs of tightening liquidity conditions, including a general tightening of repo rates and temporary liquidity pressures on specific dates [1][14] - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with rising risks to employment, suggesting a potential interest rate cut of 25 basis points later this month [1][2][18] - Current economic data indicates that while the unemployment rate remains low, job growth has significantly slowed, influenced by reduced immigration and a declining labor force participation rate [18] Asset Purchase and Market Stability - The Fed's asset purchases during the pandemic were aimed at stabilizing the economy and financial markets, with a peak loan amount of slightly over $200 billion in July 2020 [7] - The Fed maintained a significant asset purchase pace until October 2021, with a total increase of $4.6 trillion in securities held [8][9] - The Fed's framework for ample reserves has proven effective in controlling policy rates and promoting financial stability, even as the balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion since June 2022 [13] Future Considerations - The Fed plans to halt balance sheet reduction when reserves are slightly above the deemed adequate level, monitoring various indicators closely [14] - The current balance sheet size is influenced by public demand for liabilities rather than pandemic-related asset purchases, with non-reserve liabilities exceeding pre-pandemic levels by approximately $1.1 trillion [14][15]