2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-10-15 00:23Core Viewpoint - China's export control on lithium batteries and key materials is set to take effect on November 8, 2025, targeting products with energy density ≥300Wh/kg, which includes critical production technologies and materials [1][12]. Industry Impact - The announcement has led to significant market reactions, with major companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy experiencing stock declines of 6.82% and 10.96% respectively on October 10 [3]. - The Shenwan Battery Index fell over 4% after three consecutive trading days of decline following the announcement [3]. Company Responses - Companies like Siengda Intelligent and Liyuanheng stated that the new policy's impact on their overall business is minimal, as their overseas orders primarily come from domestic battery manufacturers, which are not subject to the new controls [5][6]. - Rongbai Technology emphasized that the policy is a regulation rather than a prohibition, and it mainly affects products related to semi-solid and solid-state batteries, which do not significantly impact their supply [6][11]. - Companies such as Dingsheng Technology noted that their exports mainly consist of multi-element positive materials, which are not included in the control scope [7]. Market Dynamics - The Chinese lithium battery industry is projected to produce 1170 GWh in 2024, with a total industry output value exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth [9]. - China supplies approximately 90% of the global lithium battery market, making exports a crucial part of capacity digestion [9]. Long-term Outlook - The export control is expected to reshape the global lithium battery industry landscape, shifting focus from capacity to high-end technology [11]. - The policy may lead to increased emphasis on the domestic market and accelerate the application of high-end battery technologies within China [12].