突破4100美元/盎司！国际金价为何再创新高？

Core Insights - The surge in precious metals, particularly gold, has been a dominant trend in the commodities market this year, with gold prices surpassing $4,100 per ounce recently, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and economic uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rising gold prices are partly supported by increasing expectations for aggressive monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, which lowers the holding costs for gold and encourages self-directed traders to invest [3]. - There is a notable trend of global central banks, institutional investors, and individual investors reallocating funds from U.S. Treasury securities to gold, contributing to the upward momentum in precious metal prices [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The increase in gold prices reflects heightened uncertainty and risk in the market, indicating concerns over long-term U.S. dollar assets and short-term Treasury securities, which have traditionally been major reserve assets [5]. - Bank of America has raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting gold to reach $5,000 per ounce and silver to reach $65 per ounce by 2026, marking a significant bullish outlook [7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and rising debt levels are expected to continue driving gold prices higher in the coming year [9]. - Silver is anticipated to face a structural supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, which may support higher silver prices, although there are warnings of overbought conditions for both gold and silver, suggesting potential volatility [9].