基本面利空因素基本释放完毕 甲醇有望触底反弹

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to face downward pressure on prices in the short term due to macroeconomic factors, but a rebound may occur once negative influences are exhausted [1] Supply Side Analysis - Methanol production rates are anticipated to decline in Q4, with a slight decrease in import volumes expected [1] - As of October 9, the national methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a slight decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with a weekly production of approximately 1.87 million tons [3] - Factors such as industrial gas restrictions and environmental inspections are likely to significantly limit methanol production in the Southwest and North China regions, respectively, leading to a strong expectation of supply decline in Q4 [3] Demand Side Analysis - The operating rate for coal-to-olefins remains high at 88%, supported by the restart of facilities from companies like Shenhua and Ningxia Baofeng [6] - Traditional downstream industries for methanol show limited demand, with weak purchasing intentions from enterprises post-National Day [5] - As of October 9, the operating rates for downstream products such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether were relatively stable, with some showing slight increases compared to the previous year [5] Inventory and Pricing Trends - Domestic methanol inventory has reached historical highs, with port inventories at 1.273 million tons as of October 9, a year-on-year increase of 40.96% [4] - The increase in inventory is attributed to low domestic prices and high import volumes, with imports reaching a record high of 1.7598 million tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 44.08% [4] - Despite the high inventory levels, the overall profitability of production companies remains acceptable due to low costs, although some production routes are experiencing losses [3] Market Outlook - The methanol market is expected to enter a destocking phase as supply declines and imports are projected to decrease [6] - However, recent significant drops in international crude oil prices may continue to exert downward pressure on methanol prices in the short term [6]