市场人士：原油市场面临多重压力

Core Viewpoint - The current oil market is facing multiple pressures including increased supply, bleak demand outlook, and reduced geopolitical risks [1][2][3] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, gradually unwinding a previous cut of 1.65 million barrels per day [1] - Countries like Brazil and Guyana are also seeing a continuous rise in oil supply [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a supply surplus of over 2 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Demand Outlook - The global oil demand is entering a seasonal consumption lull, exacerbated by escalating US-China trade tensions, which have led to pessimistic expectations for global economic growth and oil demand [1][2] - The end of the demand peak season has resulted in insufficient demand pressure on the market [2] - The US government's potential shutdown and fluctuating tariff policies may further reduce oil demand [1][2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza have significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [1] - The market is currently in a "TACO" trading phase, with high uncertainty in macro and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [3] Group 4: Price Trends - The international oil price is expected to remain weak in the short term, with predictions of further declines in the fourth quarter [3] - OPEC+'s commitment to increase production is seen as a "sword of Damocles" hanging over international oil prices, with potential adjustments to their production plans being a key focus for the market [1][3]