Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-15 01:12Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that Q4 2025 may be a critical time for positioning in dividend stocks, with current pessimistic expectations already reflected in the fundamentals, and the leading A-share highway stocks returning to a dividend yield of around 5% [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance and Future Outlook - Since 2021, the excess returns of the highway index in Q4 have been increasing year by year, with returns of 3.1%, 6.6%, 1.7%, and 16.9% from 2021 to 2024, corresponding to excess returns of 0.9, 5.5, 8.7, and 10.7 percentage points [2]. - The reliance of local finances on state-owned enterprise profits is expected to gradually increase, while the "deposit migration" trend may temporarily flow into low-volatility asset management products [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield has remained between 1.6% and 1.9%, indicating that defensive dividend assets are likely to attract new capital [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure Sector Insights - The highway freight recovery is leading, with a 4.1% year-on-year increase in national highway freight volume as of August 2025, and the core road asset fundamentals are showing signs of a turning point [3]. - The typical A/H share highway leaders have a projected dividend yield of 5%/6.5% for 2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [3]. - The adjustment of freight rates from 85% to 95% discounts on certain routes is expected to optimize the fee structure, further supporting the core road asset layout [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Supply Chain Opportunities - The report identifies three key directions for potential growth in logistics and supply chain sectors, including the resilience of Chinese exports amid extreme tariff impacts, optimization of resource supply structures, and marginal improvements in domestic logistics and logistics real estate due to policy support [4]. - The focus on Southeast Asia's economic resilience and the need for supply chain restructuring are expected to catalyze improvements for freight forwarding companies [4]. - The domestic logistics sector may see marginal improvements due to policy financial tools and increased funding support for existing PPP projects [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Since Q4 2021, the excess returns in the highway sector have been expanding, and the scarcity of high-quality, stable dividend assets is expected to create consensus around investment opportunities [5]. - The typical highway stocks are projected to return to a dividend yield of around 5% for 2025, which, combined with the increasing reliance on state-owned enterprise profits, suggests that early positioning in dividend assets could maximize yield spreads [5].