马云预言应验了？手里有存款的人，或许正面临“两大现实”！

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma seven years ago about housing prices becoming as cheap as scallions is increasingly becoming a reality due to significant changes in the real estate market and economic environment [1][3]. Real Estate Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic real estate market has entered a deep adjustment phase, with average national housing prices expected to drop over 30% from peak levels by 2025 [3]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to 3,000-4,000 yuan per square meter, entering the "scallion price" range [3]. - The liquidity of real estate has significantly decreased, making it difficult for investors to sell properties even at reduced prices [4]. Investment Challenges - In 2023, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale exceeded 5 million, reaching a historical high [5]. - The debt default scale of real estate companies reached 200 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating industry reshuffling [5]. - The long-term decline in bank interest rates has created a dilemma for depositors, as the one-year fixed deposit rate has dropped from 2.5% in 2018 to a historical low of 1.8% [7]. Financial Market Conditions - The yield on bank wealth management products has fallen below 3%, and the transition to net value has eliminated the guarantee of principal [8]. - In 2024, the average loss for A-share investors was 140,000 yuan, while public funds experienced losses of 20%-30% [8]. - The number of private fund liquidations increased by 60% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a significant decline in industry confidence [8]. Entrepreneurial Environment - The entrepreneurial landscape has become increasingly challenging, with 90% of new entrepreneurs failing [10]. - High competition and rising costs in low-barrier industries like retail and dining are major factors contributing to this trend [10]. - In a second-tier city, only 3 out of 20 new restaurants survived after one year, highlighting the difficulties faced by new businesses [11]. Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors are advised to lower their investment expectations and accept annual returns of 3%-4% while diversifying their asset allocation [11]. - It is recommended to prioritize investments in low-risk products such as government bonds and money market funds, and to avoid concentrating funds in a single bank [11]. - Caution is advised for those considering entrepreneurship, with a focus on light-asset, high-barrier industries and maintaining at least 12 months of operational funds [11].