Metals Focus：纽约市场贵金属多头情绪涌动

Group 1: Platinum Market Overview - The sentiment during the "New York Platinum Week" from September 15 to 19 was predominantly bullish, with spot platinum prices fluctuating around $1,400 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 30% from the average price of $1,061 per ounce during the "London Platinum Week" in May [1] - The market structure has strengthened this optimistic sentiment, with the "futures to spot" (EFP) spread showing a notable change, where futures prices remained above spot prices in July and August, leading to a premium exceeding $80 [1] - Concerns over tariffs have driven traders to increase demand for physical metal in the U.S., resulting in a significant inflow of physical platinum into certified warehouses in Chicago and a reduction in London market inventories, exacerbating supply tightness [1] Group 2: Leasing Market Dynamics - The leasing rates for platinum surged to historical highs, reaching nearly 40% on July 18, after starting at around 10% in early May, with rates remaining above 15% in early September [2] - The primary drivers for the rising leasing rates include tight physical supply in the London and Zurich OTC markets, along with significant inflows of platinum into the Chinese market and weak mining supply during the first half of the year [2] Group 3: Palladium Market Insights - Palladium prices also saw an increase, with spot prices rising by over $170 since May 19, driven more by speculative positioning and inflows into exchange-traded products (ETPs) rather than immediate physical demand [2][3] - In July, palladium futures also experienced a significant premium over spot prices, driven by similar tariff concerns, although leasing rates did not reach the extreme levels seen in platinum [3] Group 4: Tariff Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to create market volatility, with the specifics of tariff implementation remaining unclear during the "New York Platinum Week" [4] - The complexity of tariff applicability for platinum group metals depends on specific trade agreements, leading to potential risks for semi-finished products and industrial goods containing platinum group metals [4] Group 5: Supply and Demand Trends - The global refined output of 3E platinum group metals is expected to decline by 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with South African supply facing structural declines due to various factors [5] - The automotive sector, a major demand area for platinum group metals, is projected to see a 4% decrease in demand, influenced by the cancellation of electric vehicle tax credits in the U.S. and relaxed emissions targets [6] Group 6: Future Supply Shortages - All five platinum group metals are currently in a state of supply shortage, with expectations that this gap will persist until 2026 [7] - The supply shortage for platinum is anticipated to widen, while the palladium supply-demand gap is expected to narrow, contrasting sharply with previous market expectations of surplus [7]