补贴政策退坡预期刺激车市升温，9月乘用车销量创历史新高

Core Insights - In September 2023, China's retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, marking a new high for the month [1] - Cumulative retail sales from January to September totaled 17.005 million units, up 9.2% year-on-year [1] - The growth in September was attributed to the launch of over 70 new models and the expiration of tax exemptions for new energy vehicles, creating a sense of urgency among consumers [1] Sales Performance - In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in the domestic passenger car market was 57.8%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Retail sales of NEVs reached 1.296 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with cumulative sales from January to September at 8.866 million units, up 24.4% [2] - The retail share of NEVs from domestic brands was 70.1%, while mainstream joint venture brands held a mere 3.2% [3] Market Dynamics - The price war among car manufacturers has moderated, with only 23 models seeing price reductions in September compared to 36 in the same month last year [2] - The promotion rate for NEVs increased to 10.2%, while the promotion rate for fuel vehicles was 23.9% [2] - The retail volume of domestic brands reached 1.5 million units in September, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with a market share of 66.9% [3] Export Trends - In September, passenger car exports reached 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4] - Exports of NEVs were particularly strong, with 211,000 units exported in September, a 96.5% increase year-on-year, accounting for 40.1% of total passenger car exports [4] - The export of pure electric vehicles constituted 66% of NEV exports, with A00 and A0 class electric vehicles making up 46% of pure electric exports [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain stable growth in the fourth quarter, driven by policy guidance and high growth fundamentals [6] - The adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy in 2026 is anticipated to stimulate consumer purchases before the end of the year [6] - The China Passenger Car Association plans to reassess and potentially raise the annual sales forecast later in October [6]