奢侈品的“软着陆”来了？

Core Insights - The luxury goods industry experienced a downturn in the first half of 2025, but signs of recovery began in the third quarter, particularly in the U.S. and China markets, indicating a potential "soft landing" for the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Analysts expect moderate growth in third-quarter earnings for the luxury sector [2] - HSBC forecasts a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in global luxury goods sales, following declines of 0.4% and 0.8% in the first two quarters [3] - The recovery is seen as uneven, with significant disparities between brands, but the worst phase is believed to be over [3] Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, the luxury market is showing signs of mechanical recovery, with some leading brands returning to positive growth despite a generally weak economy [3] - The Hong Kong market performed well in the third quarter, benefiting from a low base effect, although local consumption remains under pressure [4] - The U.S. market is driving the industry's rebound, with strong consumer spending on luxury goods as stock markets reach new highs [5] Group 3: Brand Performance - LVMH is expected to see a slight decline of about 0.8% in the third quarter, but its fashion and leather goods division has improved from a 9% decline to 4% [5] - Kering's Gucci brand has shown a significant recovery, with its decline narrowing from 25% in the first half to 12% in the third quarter [5] - Brands like Hermès and Richemont are expected to grow by 9% and 6% respectively, driven by strong demand for high-end products [8] Group 4: Creative Trends - The upcoming 2026 Spring/Summer collections are anticipated to bring renewed consumer interest, with several new creative directors set to debut [10] - The shift away from minimalism towards more vibrant aesthetics may create new growth opportunities for brands [10] - New product lines, particularly in accessories, are expected to attract customers back into stores, enhancing sales potential [10][11]