9月CPI同比降幅收窄至0.3%，核心CPI涨幅连续第五个月扩大

Group 1 - In September, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to August [1] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to the tail effect, with the tail effect contributing approximately -0.8 percentage points to the CPI change, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [1] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with pork prices decreasing by 17% and fresh vegetable prices down by 13.7% [1] Group 2 - Non-food prices increased by 0.7% in September, with service prices rising by 0.6%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [2] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 1.8%, with notable price increases in gold and platinum jewelry at 42.1% and 33.6%, respectively [2] Group 3 - The low price level trend observed since the beginning of the year is attributed to a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market and a decline in consumer confidence [4] - External factors, such as significant drops in international oil prices, have also influenced domestic CPI [4] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to support price increases in automobiles and home appliances [4] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the CPI is expected to rise in October due to the significant drop in the price base from the previous year and the continued impact of policies like "old-for-new" [5] - Three main factors are expected to keep CPI under pressure: oversupply and weak demand, increased regulation on low-price competition, and weak internal consumption dynamics [5]