Core Insights - The holiday consumption effect on pig prices is weakening, with average prices dropping to 12.90 yuan/kg in the first week of October, a decrease of 2.8% week-on-week and 29.5% year-on-year [1][3] - The overall pig price has been on a downward trend since mid-July, with a decline of over 22% compared to the beginning of the year [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the supply pressure may gradually ease as production capacity is reduced, but pig prices may still have room to decline in the near term [1][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of pigs remains abundant, with a significant number of breeding sows still in production, leading to a situation where supply exceeds demand [4][6] - Analysts predict that as the weather cools and seasonal demand for pork increases, there may be some support for pig prices in November, but overall supply is expected to outpace demand, leading to continued price declines [2][5] - The current market conditions indicate a potential for a negative feedback loop where falling prices lead to reduced weights and increased slaughtering, further driving prices down [4][5] Production Capacity Adjustments - The Ministry of Agriculture has emphasized the need for strict production capacity controls, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows by approximately 1 million [6][7] - Some companies have begun to take action to reduce production capacity, such as culling low-yield sows and managing slaughter weights [7] - Despite these measures, the overall impact on pig prices may be limited in the short term due to the proximity of the upcoming festive season, which may keep some producers optimistic about future prices [7][8] Profitability and Market Pressure - The ongoing decline in pig prices has led to significant losses for producers, with self-breeding operations reporting an average loss of 206.91 yuan per head and fattening operations facing even greater losses [6] - Smaller producers are experiencing the most pressure due to higher costs, while larger companies are better positioned to withstand market fluctuations [6][7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with producers exhibiting reluctance to sell at low prices, which could signal a potential bottoming out of prices [5][6]
猪价跌至年内低位 生猪产能去化成关键
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-10-15 02:42