美欧新关税围剿，家具跨境将错失年底消费旺季？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "tariff war" is expected to be a significant variable in the fourth quarter of this year, with potential impacts on global trade dynamics and consumer behavior [1]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Actions - Starting from October 14, the U.S. will impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on imported softwood lumber, upholstered wooden furniture, and finished cabinets/vanities [2]. - Specific tariff rates include 10% on softwood lumber and 10%-25% on upholstered wooden furniture and cabinets, with some rates set to increase in 2026 [2]. - President Trump announced plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, citing China's export controls on rare earths as the reason [2]. Group 2: China’s Response - China has expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue while also indicating readiness to respond to U.S. tariff threats, emphasizing that negotiations should not occur alongside new restrictions [3]. Group 3: EU Tariff Actions - The European Union will impose anti-dumping duties of nearly 90% on hardwood plywood from China starting December 7, 2025, with specific rates for different suppliers [5]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - U.S. stock markets reacted negatively to the tariff news, raising concerns about the impact on global supply chains [7]. - In contrast, the A-share market showed resilience despite initial declines, with China's total trade value reaching 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year-on-year increase [7]. - According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. consumers will bear over 55% of the costs associated with the tariffs, while U.S. businesses will absorb 22% [7]. Group 5: Industry-Specific Impacts - The furniture industry is expected to face similar challenges as retailers prepare for the holiday season, with reports indicating a 40% reduction in orders for Halloween costumes due to tariffs [8]. - The shipping market is experiencing price fluctuations, with container shipping rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast showing slight increases, and plans for further rate hikes are in place [9][10].