国信证券：煤炭板块底部明确 煤价上行或打开板块反弹空间

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is expected to see profit improvements after a rebound in coal prices in the second half of 2025, with the fourth quarter showing potential for price increases due to tightening supply and seasonal demand recovery [1] Supply - In July, national raw coal production was 380 million tons, a decrease of 40 million tons (-9.5%) month-on-month and a reduction of 9 million tons (-3.8%) year-on-year; in August, production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 6 million tons (-3.2%) but a month-on-month increase of 9 million tons (+2.5%) [2] - The average monthly production from January to June 2025 is estimated at 401 million tons, while the average for July and August is 386 million tons, leading to an expected total annual production of approximately 4.71 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [2] - The reduction in production is primarily from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, with expected annual decreases of -3.7% and -4.6%, respectively [2] - Coal imports showed a recovery in July and August, with an expected annual decline of about 16%, totaling 46 million tons for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8% [2] Demand - The expectation of a cold winter is increasing, with electricity consumption in July and August surpassing 1 trillion kWh, and thermal power generation showing year-on-year increases of 4.3% and 1.7% [3] - The China Electricity Council anticipates that electricity consumption growth in the second half of the year will exceed that of the first half, with a projected annual growth of 5%-6% for 2025 [3] - Chemical coal demand remains high, with significant year-on-year increases in coal-based PVC, ethylene glycol, and methanol production [3] - Iron and steel production is expected to maintain high levels, with daily average pig iron production above 2.4 million tons [3] Inventory - Inventory pressures across various segments have significantly eased compared to the first half of the year, supporting a rebound in coal prices [4] - Mainstream port inventories are at 60.43 million tons, down over 18 million tons from mid-May, and below the same period last year [4] - The inventory of key state-owned coal mines decreased by 8.25% month-on-month in August, returning to levels seen in the previous year [4] Price - Expectations of supply contraction have raised the bottom price for coal, with seasonal demand potentially opening up upward price movement [5] - After the National Day holiday, coal prices quickly stopped falling and rebounded, reflecting a sustained expectation of tightening supply [5] - The central price for coal in the fourth quarter is expected to target 750 yuan/ton, while coking coal prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply disturbances and policy impacts [5]