华鑫证券：首予中国宏桥“买入”评级 公司大规模回购彰显信心

Core Viewpoint - Huaxin Securities predicts that China Hongqiao's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 159.48, 164.11, and 168.84 billion yuan respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 25.33, 27.11, and 28.74 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.9, 8.3, and 7.8 times, respectively, highlighting confidence in the company's large-scale buyback amid strong aluminum prices, initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan, up 35% year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin improved to 25.7%, an increase of 1.50 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Sales and Pricing - The average selling price of alumina products in H1 2025 was approximately 3,243 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of about 10.3%, while aluminum alloy products and aluminum alloy processing products saw average selling prices rise by 2.7% and 2.9% respectively [2] - The external sales volume of alumina products was 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-on-year, while aluminum alloy products and aluminum alloy processing products saw sales volumes increase by 2.4% and 3.5% respectively [2] Business Segmentation - In H1 2025, the revenue breakdown by business segment was 64.0% from aluminum alloy products, 25.5% from alumina, 10.0% from aluminum alloy processing products, and 0.5% from steam [2] - The total gross profit was 20.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with gross profit contributions from aluminum alloy products, alumina, and aluminum alloy processing products at 62.9%, 28.6%, and 9.0% respectively [2] Share Buyback and Cash Flow - The company spent 2.6 billion HKD to repurchase 187 million shares in H1 2025, reflecting confidence from the board and management in the company's long-term strategy and growth [3] - Operating cash flow reached 22.31 billion yuan, while investment and financing activities resulted in net cash outflows of 9.41 billion yuan and 8.97 billion yuan respectively [3] - The debt structure remained stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 49.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from December 31, 2024 [3]