俄印石油人民币结账落地，欧洲或间接人民币付款，美元霸权遭冲击

Core Insights - The article discusses the unexpected consequences of the U.S. decision to exclude Russia from the SWIFT payment system, leading to a significant increase in Russian oil exports to India and the subsequent use of the Chinese yuan for transactions [1][10]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Trade - Following the exclusion from SWIFT, Russia's oil exports to India surged from approximately 100,000 barrels per day before the conflict to 1.18 million barrels per day by 2024, with Russia accounting for half of India's oil imports by July 2025 [1]. - India has been refining the cheaper Russian oil and reselling it to Europe, generating substantial profits [1]. Group 2: Shift to Yuan Transactions - Russia's decision to require payment in yuan arose from the inadequacy of the Indian rupee in international markets, which limited Russia's ability to utilize the rupees received [4][5]. - The yuan is viewed as a more reliable currency compared to the rupee, given China's status as the world's largest goods trader and the stability of the yuan's exchange rate [7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - India's need for yuan to purchase Russian oil could lead to increased trade with China or currency swap agreements, thereby enhancing the yuan's influence in South Asia [8]. - The use of yuan for oil payments indirectly involves Europe in yuan transactions, potentially undermining the dominance of the dollar and euro in energy markets [9]. Group 4: Global Currency Dynamics - The article highlights a trend of "de-dollarization," with countries like Brazil and Saudi Arabia exploring direct trade settlements in yuan, reflecting a growing skepticism towards the dollar's hegemony [12][14]. - The reliance on the dollar as a tool of U.S. foreign policy has prompted nations to seek alternatives, raising concerns about the risks of being subjected to U.S. sanctions [14]. Group 5: Future of the Dollar - While the dollar remains a key player in the global financial system, the shift towards yuan transactions between Russia and India signifies a notable fracture in the dollar's dominance, suggesting a potential move towards a multipolar currency system [16].