芦哲：每周宏观经济和资产配置研判

Domestic Macro Perspective - The impact of the new round of tariffs on the domestic economy is expected to be limited, as evidenced by a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the US, while overall exports still achieved a 6.1% year-on-year growth in the first nine months of the year [1][2] - Since the third quarter, domestic economic pressures have increased, necessitating new growth stabilization policies, with investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year in August and retail sales growth at 3.4% [1][2] - The new round of growth stabilization policies is expected to be moderate, focusing on maintaining stability rather than aggressive stimulus, with projected economic growth for the third quarter at 4.7%-4.9% [2] Overseas Macro Perspective - The US economy is expected to remain resilient in the fourth quarter, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement two more rate cuts, although these expectations may be influenced by economic data and tariff developments [3] - Market sentiment is divided regarding tariffs, with optimistic views suggesting a quick rebound in US and Chinese stock markets, while pessimistic views highlight the lack of substantial concessions [3] Equity Market Perspective - The market experienced significant adjustments due to tariff impacts, with expectations that the adjustments are short-term emotional responses, leading to capital inflows into sectors benefiting from international relations fluctuations, such as rare earths and defense [4] - The market is likely to enter a consolidation phase from October to November, with a potential shift from AI hardware to defensive sectors and industries supported by performance logic [4] Bond Market Perspective - External risks have created trading opportunities, with limited downward space for rates, as the 10-year yield has returned to the 1.70%-1.75% range due to recent developments in US-China relations [5] - The bond market is expected to experience a transitional period in October, with potential for monetary policy easing and stable funding rates, despite ongoing supply pressures [6]