DLS MARKETS：鲍威尔暗示再度降息，就业放缓加大美联储决策难度

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with recruitment activities slowing down and employment growth momentum weakening, which may indicate risks of economic slowdown [3] - The unemployment rate remains low, but the softening labor market is becoming a core factor in monetary policy decisions, with analysts noting increasing employment risks [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy-making space is narrowing as it balances inflation and employment concerns [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a rate cut in October are nearly fully priced in, with investors believing there is a nearly 100% chance of a 25 basis point cut [4] - There is internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, with most officials expecting two more cuts this year, while some prefer to maintain current rates [4] - This divergence reflects differing judgments on economic outlooks, adding uncertainty to future policy directions [4] Group 3 - Delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns create challenges for the Federal Reserve, leading to "information asymmetry" [5] - The lack of complete data limits policy foundations, and while the Fed is attempting to use private sector data, it still regards official statistics as the "gold standard" [5] - The Fed faces a dilemma between continuing easing to stimulate employment and the risk of inflation rebound, or maintaining caution that could suppress economic growth [5] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve may pause balance sheet reduction in the coming months to maintain liquidity in short-term funding markets, indicating heightened concern for financial system stability [6] - The current decision-making environment is complex due to labor market slowdown, delayed data releases, and persistent inflation, making a one-size-fits-all policy approach difficult [6] - The anticipated rate cut this month may serve as a continuation of "preventive easing," with future policy direction dependent on economic data performance and overall resilience [6]