Core Viewpoint - The steel market, particularly rebar, is experiencing weakened demand and price fluctuations due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, leading to increased inventory pressure and a lack of significant improvement in demand [1][2]. Group 1: Rebar Market Dynamics - The traditional peak season for rebar, known as "Golden September and Silver October," has diminished, with inventory levels during the National Day holiday exceeding historical averages [1]. - Rebar prices are showing weak fluctuations, while raw material prices remain strong, indicating a lack of negative feedback in the supply chain [1]. - Steel mills are implementing production control measures to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in lower rebar production levels this year [1]. Group 2: Hot Roll and Steel Billet Risks - The main risks for hot-rolled steel in Q4 include a decline in domestic demand and pressure on exports, with downstream orders for cold-rolled galvanized products shrinking [2]. - Hot-rolled steel inventory levels are higher than the same period last year, indicating potential oversupply [2]. - Steel billet exports have surged, reaching a historical high of 1.76 million tons in August, but production profits are now negative, raising concerns about future output [2]. Group 3: Raw Material and Cost Dynamics - High pig iron production is supporting raw material prices, with coal and iron ore prices outperforming finished steel since August [3]. - Rebar production profits are currently low, with long-process profits below 100 yuan per ton and short-process profits around -100 yuan per ton [3]. - The cost support for rebar remains intact due to healthy fundamentals in the raw material sector, despite the lack of significant upward momentum in rebar prices [3]. Group 4: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - The market is closely monitoring macroeconomic factors, including upcoming political meetings and monetary policy decisions, which could influence rebar prices [3]. - There is a notable contradiction between weak demand and strong cost support for rebar, but the situation has not yet reached a level of negative feedback that would significantly impact prices [3]. - Overall, the rebar market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, with caution advised regarding potential volatility due to changing market expectations [3].
旺季不旺 螺纹钢维持偏弱走势
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-10-15 05:32