鲍威尔：美联储政策无预设路径 数据真空下平衡通胀与就业

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the flexible principle of the Fed's interest rate policy, stating that adjustments will be made based on evolving economic outlooks and risk balances, without a predetermined path [1][3] Economic Conditions - The Fed faces a policy dilemma characterized by persistent inflation pressures, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.9% year-on-year, while the unemployment rate reached a one-year high of 4.3% in August, indicating a weak labor market [3][4] - Powell highlighted the challenge of balancing the need to combat inflation without causing unnecessary harm to the labor market, indicating that rapid rate cuts could jeopardize anti-inflation efforts, while slow actions could damage employment [3] Data Challenges - The government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," complicating decision-making as key reports, such as the September non-farm payrolls, have been delayed, and October's core economic data may not be collected [3][4] - The Fed is attempting to fill this data gap through private sector data and regional Fed networks, but Powell acknowledged that private high-frequency data cannot fully replace official statistics [3] Market Expectations - Despite the Fed's emphasis on flexibility, market expectations for a rate cut are nearly saturated, with a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] - The shift in focus from "anti-inflation priority" to "balancing growth and employment" reflects the increasing influence of employment risks on short-term policy decisions [4] Policy Signals - Powell indicated that the process of balance sheet reduction (QT) may be nearing its end, suggesting a need to slow the pace to maintain market liquidity, which aligns with market expectations for a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts this year [4] - There remains internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the policy path, with only half of the 19 officials supporting two more rate cuts this year, while others prefer fewer or no cuts [4]