Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-15 06:13Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see a 10% half-year increase in embedded value (EV) in the second half of 2025, compared to a 2.6% increase in the first half. UBS maintains a target price of HKD 88 and a "Buy" rating for AIA Group [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - AIA Group is expected to announce its Q3 2025 results on October 31, with new business value (VNB) projected to increase by 18% year-on-year on an actual exchange rate (AER) basis and 17% on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, accelerating from 16% and 14% growth in the first half [1] - UBS attributes this strong growth primarily to a robust rebound in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Despite the introduction of interest rate caps in Hong Kong on July 1, AIA's new business value growth remains strong, driven by the momentum of mainland visitors in the agency channel during Q3 [1] - In China, AIA's new business value is forecasted to rebound by 20% year-on-year, contrasting with a 4% decline in the first half [1] - In Thailand, UBS anticipates high single-digit year-on-year growth in new business value for AIA [1] - In Singapore, due to product mix adjustments in April, the year-on-year growth rate for new business value is expected to slow compared to the first half [1] - In Malaysia, new business value is projected to recover moderately as headwinds in the agency channel gradually dissipate [1] - Other markets, particularly India and Vietnam, are expected to support double-digit growth in AIA's new business value [1]