Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-15 06:21Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see a 10% half-on-half increase in embedded value (EV) in the second half of 2025, compared to a 2.6% increase in the first half [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS maintains the target price for AIA at HKD 88 and retains a "Buy" rating [1] - AIA is expected to report a year-on-year increase in new business value (VNB) of 18% and 17% on an actual exchange rate (AER) and constant exchange rate (CER) basis, respectively, for the third quarter, accelerating from 16% and 14% growth in the first half [1] - The strong growth is primarily driven by a robust rebound in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Despite the introduction of interest rate cap guidelines on July 1, AIA's new business value growth in Hong Kong remains strong, supported by the momentum from mainland visitors in the agency channel [1] - AIA's new business value in China is predicted to rebound by 20% year-on-year in the third quarter, contrasting with a 4% decline in the first half [1] - In Thailand, UBS anticipates a high single-digit year-on-year growth in new business value for AIA [1] - In Singapore, due to product mix adjustments in April, the year-on-year growth rate for new business value in the third quarter is expected to slow compared to the first half [1] - In Malaysia, new business value is expected to recover moderately as headwinds in the agency channel gradually dissipate [1] - Other markets, particularly India and Vietnam, are projected to support double-digit growth in AIA's new business value [1]