Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-15 06:56Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a slowdown in the scale of land acquisition plans, with a total proposed acquisition amount exceeding 610 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, while the newly proposed acquisition amount has decreased significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Plans - As of Q3 2025, there are 4,687 proposed land acquisitions nationwide, corresponding to an area of 250 million square meters, with a total proposed acquisition amount of approximately 614.5 billion yuan [1][2]. - The newly proposed acquisition amount for Q3 2025 is 131.8 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 58.4% [1][2]. - The top three provinces in terms of cumulative acquisition scale are Zhejiang (84.3 billion yuan), Guangdong (74 billion yuan), and Chongqing (50.5 billion yuan) [2]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - By Q3 2025, a total of 195 billion yuan in special bonds for land acquisition has been issued, covering 32% of the proposed acquisition amount, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous half [3]. - In Q3 2025, 98.9 billion yuan in new bonds were issued, indicating a significant acceleration in the actual funds available [3]. - Only eight provinces have implemented special bond issuance, with the top three in coverage being Hunan (37.8 billion yuan, 96%), Jiangsu (24.3 billion yuan, 83%), and Guangdong (48.6 billion yuan, 66%) [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The focus for Q4 will be on the large-scale promotion of land acquisition, particularly the progress of special bond implementation [4]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the acquisition of existing land has formed a replicable operational model, although the actual funds available still lag behind the proposed acquisition scale [4]. - The proposed acquisition amounts and special bond issuance in first and second-tier cities account for 36% and 24% of the national totals, respectively [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks in the development category include Vanke A (000002.SZ), Poly Developments (600048.SH), and China Overseas Development (00688) among others [5]. - In the commercial and residential category, recommended stocks include China Resources Land (01109) and Longfor Group (00960) [5]. - For property management, recommended stocks include Wanwu Cloud (02602) and China Overseas Property (02669) [5].