从能源自信到规则自觉：从邓正红软实力哲学看未来石油市场软实力竞争关键维度

Core Insights - The future competition in the oil market will revolve around the dynamic balance between "rule power" and "material strength," with participants needing to effectively convert resource potential into rule-making, value innovation, and alliance management capabilities [1][5]. Group 1: Key Dimensions of Competition - Rule Reconstruction Ability: OPEC is transitioning from a traditional production controller to a technology standard setter and geopolitical coordinator, reshaping market expectations through gradual production increases [2][5]. - Expectation Management Mechanism: The current market pricing logic has shifted from traditional supply-demand dynamics to a "geopolitical-financial spiral," highlighting the competition driven by rule reconstruction and psychological expectations [2][5]. - Value Innovation System: The U.S. shale oil industry is facing a transformation dilemma from "technological dividends" to "capital-driven" models, weakening its soft power value creation ability [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Pathways - Differentiation among leading companies is emerging, with U.S. shale producers relying on financial innovation for production adjustment, Middle Eastern oil companies creating energy-technology-value ecosystems through sovereign wealth funds, and European giants aiming to become carbon-neutral standard exporters [4][5]. - OPEC's strategy is shifting from passive production cuts to proactive production increases to capture market share, utilizing tactics that disrupt market expectations to reconstruct pricing rules [5][6]. Group 3: Soft Power Transformation - OPEC's transformation strategy includes becoming a technology standard setter and balancing geopolitical pressures through differentiated production policies [5][6]. - The competition in the oil market will increasingly focus on standard-setting capabilities, expectation management levels, and geopolitical negotiation wisdom [6][9]. Group 4: U.S. Shale Oil Challenges - The U.S. shale oil industry is encountering a soft power dilemma due to technological standardization leading to a loss of innovative potential and a valuation crisis driven by capital markets reshaping traditional energy valuations [7][8]. - The industry faces a critical turning point where the standardization of technology has led to a collective "innovator's dilemma," trapping companies in efficiency traps created by their own innovations [7][8]. Group 5: Russia's Adaptive Strategies - Russia has diversified its export markets, increasing its share in Asia from 34% in 2019 to 82% in 2024, showcasing its ability to adapt to geopolitical pressures [9][10]. - The country employs a dual strategy of maintaining trade flow through discounted prices while using energy contracts to weave special relationship networks, indicating a nuanced approach to soft power competition [10][11]. Group 6: Demand-Side Soft Power Reconstruction - As global refined oil consumption peaks, oil-producing countries need to reconstruct their value propositions on the demand side, focusing on new growth areas like aviation fuel [11][12]. - The application of AI and digital twin technologies is emerging as a new soft power carrier, with companies like Saudi Aramco developing advanced models to enhance their competitive edge [11][12].