美国政府关门将世界推入数据盲区！全球性风险疯狂上升

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is causing a disruption in the flow of official data, which is critical for decision-making by Japan and other countries regarding their monetary policies, trade performance, and inflation outlooks [1][2] - Global officials express concerns that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could lead to a "data blackout," complicating their decision-making processes and increasing the risk of errors [1][2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlights that political pressures on policy institutions may erode public trust in their ability to fulfill their missions, which could complicate policy-making for central banks and decision-makers [3] Group 1 - The Japanese central bank faces challenges in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes due to the lack of reliable U.S. data [1] - An anonymous Japanese decision-maker criticized the situation, emphasizing the reliance of the Federal Reserve on data that is currently unavailable [1] - The Bank of England's policy committee member noted that while U.S. data issues do not directly impact the Bank of England's policy debates, they reflect a broader trend affecting the pound's global standing [1][2] Group 2 - The IMF's World Economic Outlook report indicates that the impact of policy changes on economic prospects has been significant but not catastrophic [4] - Following a previous downward adjustment, the IMF has revised its global growth forecast for the year to 3.2% [5] - The ongoing government shutdown is creating a significant data gap, leading to increased uncertainty and risk of errors in economic forecasts as decision-makers struggle to integrate available microdata and anecdotal evidence [6]