9月CPI同比涨幅近19个月来首次回到1%，宏观政策持续见效
Bei Ke Cai Jing·2025-10-15 08:00

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw its first year-on-year increase in 19 months, rising to 1% and marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [2][4] CPI Analysis - The month-on-month increase in CPI was driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits, lamb, and beef, with increases ranging from 0.9% to 6.1%. Conversely, pork and aquatic product prices fell by 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively [4] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily influenced by a base effect, with the tail effect contributing approximately -0.8 percentage points to the -0.3% change [5] - In the food category, pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits saw price declines of 17.0%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 4.2%, respectively, while beef and lamb prices increased by 4.6% and 0.8% [5] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [8] - The stabilization in PPI is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics and the impact of macroeconomic policies, which have led to positive price changes in certain industries [8] - The "anti-involution" policy and the significant drop in the year-on-year comparison base have contributed to the narrowing of the PPI decline [9][10] Future Outlook - Forecasts suggest that the CPI may rise to around 0.1% year-on-year in October, driven by the effects of consumption-boosting policies and a lower base from the previous year [6] - The overall expectation is for a mild recovery in CPI throughout the year, with an anticipated annual increase of 0.1% [7] - PPI is expected to continue facing downward pressure until there is a significant recovery in the real estate market and consumer confidence [9]