价格突破52美元/盎司 白银迎来“黄金时代”？

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a liquidity crisis, leading to a significant price increase, with silver reaching a historical high of $52.38 per ounce, a 73% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The liquidity crisis in the London silver market is attributed to a long-term structural imbalance exacerbated by short-term events and increased investment demand [2] - Concerns over tariffs have accelerated the depletion of London silver inventories, with the share of available silver inventory dropping to approximately 20%, the lowest since data was published [2] - The imbalance between physical supply and financial market leverage is a core issue, with non-ETF inventories at a decade low and significant ETF holdings creating a mismatch [2][3] Group 2: Cost and Supply Factors - Rising market transaction costs due to delivery pressures and high logistics costs have increased the cost of market delivery [3] - The rental rate for silver has surged to 40.3%, forcing short sellers to pay high costs to roll over positions, creating a vicious cycle of scarcity [3] - The proposal to include silver in the "critical minerals list" by the US Geological Survey has raised concerns about supply chain stability and potential import tariffs, further tightening the market [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - The recent surge in silver prices is primarily driven by liquidity issues and increased investment demand, with a notable rise in silver ETF holdings [4][5] - The iShares Silver Trust has seen record inflows, reflecting institutional investors' long-term confidence in silver as both an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset [5] - Short-term projections indicate that silver prices may remain strong due to Fed rate cut expectations and supply-demand mismatches, while long-term trends suggest a shift from industrial metal to value storage asset [5]