西京研究院院长赵建：黄金重回全球金融“底盘资产”

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, reflects a significant revaluation of gold's value in the context of a depreciating dollar and a shifting international monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - The rise in gold prices is attributed to systemic changes in the international monetary system rather than just cyclical supply and demand or geopolitical disturbances [2][3]. - The historical context shows that the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 marked the first systematic revaluation of gold, leading to its current status as a key asset in the global monetary order [3]. - Recent factors contributing to the price increase include unprecedented gold purchases by central banks, high U.S. debt levels, and geopolitical tensions, which have all heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - In the current macroeconomic environment, gold and equity assets (particularly technology and resource sectors) are identified as "strong assets" for investment [1][8]. - It is suggested that individual investors maintain a gold allocation of 20% to 25% in their portfolios, with the potential to adjust to 30% during long-term investments [8][9]. - The shift in Chinese household asset allocation from real estate to financial assets indicates a broader trend of "de-housing" and "financialization," with significant capital seeking new investment directions [7][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by market sentiment and liquidity rather than fundamental changes, making short-term predictions challenging [6]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive as the underlying issues of the dollar's credit system have not been resolved, suggesting that gold will continue to be a crucial component of global asset allocation [9]. - While silver and platinum may follow gold's price movements, they do not hold the same strategic significance and are subject to higher volatility, making them less favorable for long-term investment [11].