KCMTrade分析师Tim汇评：日元和欧元困境保护美元免受政府关门担忧的影响

Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The US dollar typically does not gain during a government shutdown, but it has risen by 0.9% since the latest shutdown began, influenced by market expectations that the shutdown may last weeks rather than months [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 3% this week due to the results of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party elections, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly following the resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire, has contributed to the decline of the euro, further supporting the dollar [3] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have benefited from increased political uncertainty in Europe, Japan, and the US, with current trading prices around $4000 [3] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has been negative historically, but both assets have risen simultaneously this week due to market dynamics [3] - Key support levels for gold are at $3954, $3925, and $3874, while resistance is around $4005, indicating potential short-term risks if profit-taking occurs near $4000 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is limiting the decline in crude oil prices [4] - US crude oil prices have remained in the lower half of the $60-$66 range since June, with moderate support at $60.92 and stronger support at $60.20 [4] - The upper resistance level for crude oil is at $62.75, indicating a potential price ceiling in the near term [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for clues on the Fed's potential dovish stance in the coming months [6] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty regarding the release of key US economic data, including the delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data [6] - Comments from Fed officials will be critical for investors to assess the likelihood of one or two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [6]