专访张希良：CCER方法学体系争取年底或明年发布丨首席气候官

Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a draft for public consultation on six methodologies related to greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction projects, indicating an acceleration in the development of the CCER methodology system [1][2] - Zhang Xiliang, Director of Tsinghua University's Energy and Environment Economics Research Institute, confirmed that the CCER methodology framework is currently under construction and is expected to be published by the end of 2025 or next year [1][2] Methodology Development - The CCER methodology is crucial for promoting the voluntary carbon market, with initial methodologies covering grid-connected solar thermal power, offshore wind power, afforestation carbon sinks, and mangrove restoration [2][3] - As of now, 19 methodologies have been released in five batches, but the number is still limited, necessitating a comprehensive methodology system to clarify project inclusion and establish relevant standards [2][3] Market Dynamics - The CCER methodology system aims to adopt a top-down approach, focusing on key sectors such as energy, buildings, and transportation, based on national strategic needs [3][4] - The development of carbon financial products, including futures and derivatives based on carbon emission rights and CCER, is seen as a necessary direction for future growth [4][5] Current Market Status - The current spot market for carbon trading has a participation rate exceeding 90%, indicating a significant level of engagement from enterprises [5][6] - The reasonable carbon price range is estimated to be between 70 to 100 yuan, reflecting the scarcity of carbon emission allowances and the constraints of carbon reduction targets [5][6] Future Challenges and Opportunities - The goal of achieving comprehensive coverage of the national carbon emission trading market by 2027 presents challenges, particularly regarding data quality and the complexity of managing new sectors [6][7] - Despite existing differences in carbon pricing between China and developed economies like the EU, the long-term trend suggests that China's carbon price will continue to rise, potentially converging with EU prices over the next two to three decades [7]