美国政府“停摆”！风险多大？何时结束？

Group 1 - The core issue of the current U.S. government shutdown is the disagreement between the two parties regarding healthcare subsidies, with the Democrats insisting on including related provisions in the funding bill while the Republicans advocate for a temporary bill to reopen the government first [1][4]. - The U.S. government is experiencing its first shutdown in seven years, which has now entered its third week, exceeding the historical average duration of shutdowns [2][4]. - Economic impacts of the shutdown are estimated to be a 0.1% drag on GDP growth for each week it continues, although this impact is likely to be reversed once the government reopens [5]. Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. shows signs of weakness in the job market, as indicated by the negative ADP employment data for September [6][10]. - Consumer spending data remains resilient, supported by durable goods consumption, while the housing market shows some positive signals, potentially linked to declining mortgage rates [7][9]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates in October and December, with probabilities of 94% and 80% respectively for a 25 basis point cut [10]. Group 3 - In light of the government shutdown and the current economic policy environment, the company recommends maintaining a focus on large-cap technology stocks for investment, while also considering tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [10]. - For U.S. bonds, the company suggests looking into short to medium-duration bonds, which are less affected by interest rate declines, and also recommends positioning for a steepening yield curve strategy, while being cautious of inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve [10].