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阿斯麦 ASML:AI Capex 加 buff,最坏时期已过!

Core Insights - ASML reported Q3 2025 revenue of €7.5 billion, a 0.7% year-over-year increase, below market expectations of €7.7 billion, primarily driven by contributions from TSMC and customers in mainland China [1][17] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.6%, slightly above the company's guidance range of 50-52%, supported by an increase in service revenue [1][17] - Net profit for the quarter was €2.13 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with a net profit margin of 28.3% [1][20] Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was €7.5 billion, with a gross profit of €3.88 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 51.6% [1][17] - Net income reached €2.13 billion, with a net profit margin of 28.3%, indicating stable operating expenses [1][20][21] - Research and development expenses were €1.11 billion, representing 14.8% of revenue, while selling and administrative expenses were €300 million, or 4% of revenue [18][21] Business Segments - Lithography system revenue was €5.55 billion, down 6.3% year-over-year, while service revenue increased by 27.3% to €1.96 billion [1][30] - EUV and ArFi systems accounted for nearly 66% of lithography system revenue, with EUV revenue at approximately €2.11 billion and ArFi at €2.89 billion [2][27] - The average selling price for EUV systems was around €23.5 million, while ArFi systems averaged €7.6 million [2][28] Regional Performance - Mainland China was the largest revenue contributor, accounting for 42% of total revenue, approximately €3.16 billion, significantly above the expected 25% [3][32] - Taiwan contributed around €2.26 billion, representing 30% of revenue, primarily driven by TSMC's demand [3][32] - Revenue from South Korea and the USA remained low due to reduced capital expenditures from major clients like Samsung and Intel [32] Order Trends and Future Guidance - The net order intake for the quarter was €5.4 billion, exceeding market expectations of €4.9 billion, indicating improved customer confidence [5][7] - For Q4 2025, ASML expects revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion, above market expectations of €9.2 billion [7][14] - The company is positioned to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI demand and recovery in the storage sector [14][20]