闪评 | 鲍威尔：通胀与就业9月来无变化 美联储下一步如何走？

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that there has been little change in the U.S. employment and inflation outlook since the September meeting, emphasizing a cautious approach to monetary policy based on evolving economic conditions [1][4]. Economic Status - The U.S. economy is facing a dual challenge: a rising unemployment rate, which reached 4.3% in August, the highest in four years, and persistent inflation expectations among consumers, which have increased to the highest level since May due to trade tensions and Fed policies [4]. - The current economic environment is described as a "soft landing" scenario, where growth is slowing but not in recession, and inflation remains sticky [4]. Fed's Dilemma - Powell stated that there is no risk-free path for the Fed's interest rate policy, highlighting the inherent trade-offs in economic decision-making [5]. - The Fed's dilemma involves balancing the risks of premature rate cuts, which could exacerbate inflation, against the risks of delayed cuts, which could hinder economic growth and employment [6][7]. Upcoming Fed Meeting - The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet on October 28-29, with Powell's recent comments signaling a cautious approach to future rate decisions [10]. - Analysts suggest that while there is speculation about a potential rate cut, the uncertainty created by ongoing trade issues may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious stance, possibly delaying any cuts until December [10].