Ge Long Hui·2025-10-15 11:24Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 188.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - The growth in value-added services is projected to be 91.6 billion yuan, with gaming revenue at 59.1 billion yuan (YoY +14%) and social networking at 32.6 billion yuan (YoY +5%) [1] - Online advertising revenue is anticipated to reach 36.7 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 22% [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 58.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11% [2] Gaming Sector - Revenue from gaming is projected to grow by 14% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with domestic and overseas markets growing by 8% and 29% respectively [1] - The domestic gaming market remains stable, with the shooting genre performing particularly well, and the game "Delta Force" expected to exceed 8 billion yuan in single-quarter revenue [1] Marketing Services - Revenue from marketing services is expected to increase by 22% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven primarily by the WeChat ecosystem [2] - The advertising business benefits from strong performance in video accounts, mini-programs, and search ads, with improved advertising efficiency and conversion rates due to the synergy of content ecology and AI capabilities [2] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue in this segment is projected to grow by 11% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with stable performance in payment services and double-digit growth in wealth management and micro-loan services [2] - Cloud business is expected to accelerate, with a year-on-year growth rate likely to exceed 20% [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company has adjusted its profit expectations, forecasting revenues of 748.6 billion yuan, 840.3 billion yuan, and 923.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [2] - The projected NON-IFRS net profit for the same period is 257.8 billion yuan, 295.4 billion yuan, and 329.9 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 28, 32, and 36 yuan [2] - Based on the SOTP valuation method, the target market value for Tencent Holdings in 2026 is set at 6.5 trillion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 773 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]