“看，皇帝没穿衣服”！对冲基金经理：万亿美元的AI投入，赚得回来吗？

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights significant concerns regarding the sustainability and profitability of AI data centers, suggesting that the required investment and revenue projections are unrealistic and may lead to substantial financial losses in the future [1][2][3]. Investment Requirements - AI data center construction is projected to require investments in the range of trillions of dollars over the next 3-5 years, with estimates suggesting that achieving a 10% capital return would necessitate revenues of $1-2 trillion, and for better returns, revenues of $3-4 trillion would be needed [1][4][8]. - Current annual spending on data center construction is around $400 billion, which is significantly lower than the projected needs for profitability [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The AI business model is criticized for its lack of customer loyalty and high substitutability among products like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude, leading to intense price competition that could reduce profit margins to just above energy costs [1][2][4][16]. - The potential for a price war is highlighted, where companies may continuously undercut each other, resulting in minimal profit margins [1][4][16]. Historical Comparisons - The current AI investment landscape is likened to the telecom bubble of 2000, where companies created artificial revenue through financing schemes, leading to eventual market collapse [2][22]. - The analogy of railroad construction is used to illustrate the cyclical nature of capital investment in AI, suggesting that many investors may face repeated failures despite ongoing funding [18][19]. Revenue Generation Challenges - The AI industry is currently generating revenues estimated between $15 billion to $20 billion, which is insufficient to cover the projected costs of data center operations, indicating a need for a 30-fold increase in revenue to break even [9][11][13]. - Concerns are raised about the viability of AI applications in generating sustainable income, especially in sectors like healthcare and finance, where free alternatives may dominate the market [11][13][14]. Investor Sentiment - Conversations with industry insiders reveal a consensus that many AI-related assets are overvalued, with significant skepticism about their future profitability [32][33]. - The sentiment among investors is one of caution, with many expressing disbelief in the projected growth and profitability of AI technologies [33][34].