从“选人”到“配置”，浦银安盛张川谈工业化时代的FOF破局

Core Viewpoint - The global market is entering a critical policy window, with a focus on potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while investors are exploring multi-asset allocation strategies to convert risks into wealth opportunities [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Zhang Chuan, head of FOF business at Puyin Ansheng Fund, expresses a long-term positive outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by AI computing power and industrial capital expenditure, despite potential short-term volatility [1][8] - The long-term liquidity of overseas equity assets may improve in the context of the Fed restarting its rate cut cycle, although the US stock market may enter a consolidation phase after continuous upward movement [1][9] - Gold is expected to face short-term upward pressure but is projected to rise in the long term due to global economic uncertainties, geopolitical conflicts, and ongoing central bank purchases [1][8] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Zhang emphasizes a systematic investment philosophy focused on risk management before asset allocation, aiming to provide sustainable and stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [2][5] - The transition from a "heroic era" of asset management to a systematic and industrialized approach is highlighted, with a focus on multi-asset allocation as a key growth area for asset management institutions [3][4] Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A four-step asset allocation framework is proposed: asset selection and positioning, strategic asset allocation, tactical adjustments, and attribution iteration, aimed at creating a transparent and efficient investment experience [7][8] - The framework categorizes assets into "winning assets" (e.g., bonds) that provide safety and "odds assets" that enhance portfolio sharpness, balancing volatility [6][8] Group 4: Current Market Positioning - The current market is viewed as a "period of resonance improvement" between Chinese and American liquidity, leading to an overweight position on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities [8][9] - Caution is advised regarding bond assets, which are seen as lacking short-term directional opportunities, while US Treasuries are viewed with skepticism due to liquidity and quota constraints [9]