美国已大乱，世界将清醒，如果最终失控，中国能否成为全球第一？

Economic Situation in the US - The US federal government shutdown has entered its seventh day, with no results from seven Senate votes, causing delays in key economic data releases [1] - Concerns are rising on Wall Street about prolonged shutdowns affecting employment data and consumer confidence [1] - Deloitte predicts that US economic growth will slow down by 2025 compared to the previous two years, despite lower tariffs [1] Debt Crisis - By 2025, US federal debt is projected to exceed $37.64 trillion, over 120% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 15% of the budget [3] - The average interest rate has more than doubled from 1.556% in 2022 to 3.352% in July 2025 [3] - The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that by 2055, debt could reach 156% of GDP, indicating a looming crisis [3] Trade and Economic Impact - High tariffs and trade wars are straining relationships with allies and politicizing the independence of the Federal Reserve [5] - The government shutdown has halted critical data, leading to a low overall confidence in the economy [5] - Global growth is slowing, with the IMF noting increased uncertainty affecting markets and political stability [5] China's Economic Performance - China's economy is showing robust growth, with a GDP increase of 5% in the first half of the year, marking eight consecutive quarters of positive growth [7] - The IMF has raised China's growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8%, driven by strong data and lower-than-expected tariff impacts [7] - China's contribution to global growth is significant, with a projected contribution rate of 22% over the next five years, surpassing the G7 combined [9] Innovation and Industry Development in China - China is advancing rapidly in biopharmaceuticals, contributing to 20% of global drug development [11] - The film industry in China is leveraging technology to enhance efficiency and creativity, positioning itself as a global leader [11] - The Belt and Road Initiative is seeing significant investment, with contracts worth $66.2 billion in the first half of 2025 [9]