BMI上调2025年铜价预估，助于工业需求和供应中断

Core Insights - Fitch Solutions' BMI has raised its 2025 copper price forecast to $9,650 per ton from a previous estimate of $9,500, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and strong industrial demand [2] - Current average copper prices are at $9,609 per ton, with trading prices exceeding $10,000 due to macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. interest rate cuts, which are expected to stimulate manufacturing and investment activities until 2026 [3] Demand Drivers - China remains the dominant force in global copper consumption, with significant increases in demand driven by the expansion of green energy [4] - Solar power installations surged by 212 gigawatts in the first half of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, alongside a substantial rise in electric vehicle sales [4] - The dual surge in renewable energy and electric vehicles has pushed Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories to multi-year lows, while global inventories at the London Metal Exchange are expected to halve to nearly 140,000 tons by 2025 [4] Supply Constraints - BMI indicates that copper prices will continue to be supported by supply disruptions from major producers [5] - The Grasberg copper mine, the second-largest globally, experienced a landslide in September, invoking force majeure and reducing 2026 production forecasts by 35% [6] - Chile's production has also seen significant declines, with Codelco's El Teniente mine experiencing a 25% year-on-year drop in August, reaching a 20-year low of 93,400 tons [7] - The Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore, reported a 27% production decline, prompting both companies to lower their 2025-2026 production targets [7] Long-term Outlook - BMI anticipates a 2.4% growth in global refined copper production by 2025, but expects this year's global copper surplus to be smaller than in 2024 [8] - Over the next decade, BMI believes that a significant number of new projects will inject additional copper supply into the market, although supply growth will lag behind demand growth [9] - The International Energy Agency notes that each electric vehicle contains over 50 kilograms of copper, more than double that of traditional vehicles, and offshore wind energy facilities require up to 8 tons of copper per megawatt of installed capacity [9] - Consequently, BMI forecasts that accelerating electrification and clean energy infrastructure development will lead to a long-term supply gap, pushing copper prices to $17,000 per ton by 2034 [10]