为保政府，马克龙“标志性”改革被叫停！法国暂避危机

Core Points - French Prime Minister Le Maire has suspended a controversial pension reform, providing temporary relief to the market and avoiding a potential government collapse [2][3] - The proposed reform aimed to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, which is significantly lower than other European countries [4] - The suspension of the pension reform is expected to cost €400 million (approximately $465 million) in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027, which will need to be offset by savings [4][5] Group 1: Pension Reform - The pension reform was a key part of President Macron's political legacy, but its suspension indicates a step back from necessary structural reforms [4] - The resistance to changing the retirement age and contribution requirements is deeply rooted in French society, leading to protests and strikes [4] - Analysts suggest that the permanent suspension of the pension reform could lead to an annual cost of €20 billion by 2035, increasing public debt significantly [5] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 4.7% of GDP by 2026, down from an expected 5.5% this year [7] - Despite the goal of fiscal consolidation, the government has not proposed austerity measures and hinted at a one-time special levy on large wealth [7] - UBS analysts predict that France's debt-to-GDP ratio will worsen by 2-3 percentage points annually, remaining above 5% for the deficit in 2026 [7]