稀土巨头，前三季度盈利预增7倍

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in rare earth prices has led to a substantial rise in Shenghe Resources' profits for the third quarter, with net profit expected to reach between 740 million to 820 million yuan, marking an increase of 696.82% to 782.96% year-on-year [1][5]. Group 1: Profit Forecast and Market Dynamics - Shenghe Resources anticipates a net profit of 740 million to 820 million yuan for the first three quarters, exceeding most institutional expectations [1][5]. - The rise in rare earth prices is attributed to changes in market supply and demand, with the rare earth price index reaching a peak of 233 points in mid-August, a 43% increase compared to the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The third quarter is projected to be the most profitable for Shenghe Resources, with a net profit of approximately 400 million yuan, a 100% increase from the previous quarter [5][7]. Group 2: Business Structure and Revenue Contribution - Shenghe Resources operates in both rare earth and zirconium-titanium sectors, covering a complete industrial chain from mining to deep processing, with rare earth products accounting for 83% of total revenue [5][12]. - The company's profit trend is closely linked to rare earth price movements, with net profits of 168 million yuan and 209 million yuan in the first two quarters of the year [5][12]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Future Expectations - As of October 15, the stock price of Shenghe Resources was 26.26 yuan per share, with a projected annualized valuation of around 65 times based on a profit expectation of 700 million yuan for 2025 [9][10]. - If profits exceed 1 billion yuan, the annualized valuation could decrease to approximately 45 times [9][10]. - The company has seen a significant stock price increase of 157.32% this year, although it faces valuation pressures similar to its peers in the rare earth sector [10][11]. Group 4: Acquisition and Future Projects - Shenghe Resources completed the acquisition of Peak Rare Earths Limited for approximately 920 million yuan, reflecting the rising market prices for rare earth products [11][12]. - The core asset of Peak is the Ngualla rare earth project in Tanzania, which is expected to start production in the first quarter of 2027, potentially generating a net profit of 390 million yuan [12].