Core Viewpoint - Hai Jiayi Medical (06078) has issued a profit warning, expecting a revenue decline of approximately 15% to 17% and a net profit decline of about 34% to 39% for the mid-year period [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hai Jiayi Medical reported revenue of 1.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 16.47%, and a net profit of 246 million RMB, down 36.18% year-on-year [3][4] - The company's inpatient services and outpatient services generated revenues of 1.22 billion RMB (down 18.4% year-on-year) and 722 million RMB (down 11.2% year-on-year) respectively [3][4] DRG Payment Reform Impact - The implementation of the DRG (Diagnosis-Related Group) payment reform is a significant factor contributing to the company's revenue and profit decline, shifting the payment model from fee-for-service to bundled payments based on disease types [3][6] - The reform has led to a compression of profit margins for private hospitals, including Hai Jiayi Medical, as it incentivizes cost control rather than revenue maximization [3][6] Market Dynamics - Despite the revenue and profit declines, the number of patients treated remained stable at 2.2 million, indicating consistent demand for Hai Jiayi's hospital services [4][6] - The aging population in China, projected to reach over 400 million by 2035, and the expected growth in the oncology market present a favorable long-term outlook for Hai Jiayi Medical [7] Capital Expenditure and Future Strategy - The company has indicated a reduction in capital expenditures, with a current spending of 242 million RMB, down 28.5% year-on-year, and plans to focus on acquisitions rather than new hospital constructions in the short term [5][6] - Hai Jiayi Medical is expected to experience a rebound in revenue and profit as it navigates through the capital expenditure peak and benefits from new capacity coming online [6][7] Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Following the profit warning, the stock price fell significantly, reaching a low of 13.12 HKD, representing an 87.95% decline from its peak of 109.43 HKD in 2021 [1][8] - The stock has shown signs of stabilization, with a recent increase in trading volume and a potential for a turnaround, although market sentiment remains cautious [8][11]
股价跌去近九成后，基本盘稳定的海吉亚医疗(06078)来到估值反转前夜？