美联储开始松口！10月份降息概率会有多高

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential end to the balance sheet reduction process in the coming months to prevent liquidity tightening in short-term funding markets [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet during the pandemic and began raising interest rates in March 2022, followed by balance sheet reduction starting in June 2022 [2]. - The first interest rate cut is expected in September 2024, while the balance sheet reduction has continued until now [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The expectation of interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are likely to lead to increased liquidity, which historically correlates with better market performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]. - Following Powell's remarks, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.84%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.57%, indicating signs of stabilization [5]. - Despite the positive market reaction, there has been a net outflow of 5.4 billion from southbound funds, suggesting that foreign capital is not necessarily buying into the perceived benefits of rate cuts [5]. Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market showed weakness in early trading, primarily due to the previous day's decline [6]. - However, the surge in shares of Sanhua Intelligent Control led to a recovery in the broader technology sector, improving market sentiment [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is characterized by volatility, with frequent changes in trend signals, particularly in sectors like AI and chips [12]. - Investors are advised to be patient and wait for clear signals, as the market's oscillating nature can lead to increased trading frequency and potential losses [12].