前三季度新增社融超30万亿元，背后信号很大

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing increased by 4.42 trillion yuan year-on-year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust financial support for the real economy [1][11] - Government bond issuance has accelerated, significantly contributing to the social financing scale, with net financing of government bonds reaching 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [1][12] - The structure of financing shows that loans to the real economy accounted for 61.1% of the total social financing stock, while government bonds represented 21.2%, reflecting a shift towards more diversified financing channels [2][11] Financing Structure - By the end of September, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 61.1% of the total social financing stock, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The balance of corporate bonds accounted for 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while government bonds increased to 21.2%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Non-financial corporate stock financing reached 316.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.463 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a growing reliance on equity financing [1] Deposit and Loan Trends - By the end of September, the balance of RMB deposits was 324.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 12.73 trillion yuan [4][6] - The balance of loans was 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, and the average interest rate for new loans was approximately 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the previous year [7][11] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is observed, where residents shift their savings into higher-yielding assets, influenced by changing interest rates [4][6] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [9][11] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates increased business activity and consumer demand, suggesting a recovery in the economy [9][11] - Experts predict that the fourth quarter will see continued monetary support for the real economy, with fiscal policies also playing a significant role in sustaining economic growth [12]