收复7.1！人民币中间价创11个月新高 市场热议升值拐点到来

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching a new high since November 2024, driven by both internal and external factors [1][4][11]. Exchange Rate Movements - On October 15, the central bank set the yuan's midpoint at 7.0995 against the dollar, up 26 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The onshore yuan closed at 7.1238, rising 173 points, while the offshore yuan reached 7.13140, appreciating 0.12% [3]. - Year-to-date, the onshore yuan has appreciated by 2.40%, and the offshore yuan by 2.79% [3]. Economic Indicators - In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.3% year-on-year [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the first increase in 19 months [3]. External Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The US economy is facing recession risks, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar [4][11]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the yuan [4][12]. Yuan Index Performance - The CFETS yuan index rose to 97.32, the BIS index to 103.43, and the SDR index to 91.89, all reaching new highs since April 2025 [5][7]. Long-term Outlook for Yuan - Analysts suggest that the yuan may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, supported by a favorable economic environment and structural adjustments [13][14]. - The relative economic strength of China compared to the US is expected to provide solid support for the yuan's value [14][15].