美联储继续敞开降息大门

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to consider a rate cut in October due to rising employment risks and a lack of significant changes in the economic outlook since the last meeting [1][3][8] Employment Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about the worsening employment situation, indicating that the job vacancy rate is declining, which may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate [4][5] - The balance of risks regarding employment and inflation has shifted, prompting the Fed to lower rates in September [3][5] Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains above the Fed's target, with the CPI at an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5] - Powell noted that price increases are primarily due to tariffs rather than broader inflationary trends [4] Quantitative Tightening - The Fed may soon halt its quantitative tightening (QT) measures, which have been in place since mid-2022, reducing the balance sheet from a peak of $8.9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the end of QT could prevent a repeat of past market tensions caused by aggressive balance sheet reductions [6] Market Expectations - Following Powell's remarks, market expectations for a rate cut in October have surged, with probabilities nearing 100% for a 25 basis point reduction [8] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 is anticipated to solidify these expectations, with analysts predicting further rate cuts based on labor market data [7][8]