Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-15 16:45Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing dynamics of the housing market and the misconceptions surrounding mortgage loans, emphasizing the need for a defensive financial strategy in light of shifting economic, demographic, and social factors [2][20]. Financial Structure - A case study illustrates the financial burden of a mortgage, where a buyer purchased a home for 4.26 million with a loan of 2.98 million, only to face foreclosure and a sale price of 2.4 million, resulting in significant financial loss [4][5]. - The concept of "interest front-loading" is highlighted, where banks prioritize collecting interest in the initial years of a mortgage, leading to a situation where homeowners may not own a significant portion of their property early on [6][8]. Psychological Effects - The article points out a psychological effect termed "illusory ownership," where homeowners believe they own their property while actually prepaying a large amount of rent to the bank and bearing the risk of asset depreciation [8][9]. Mismatched Cycles - There are mismatches between personal career cycles and debt cycles, as individuals may face significant career changes while being locked into long-term mortgage commitments [11]. - The article also discusses the mismatch between family life cycles and fixed cash flows, emphasizing the need for flexible financial resources to handle life events [12]. - Additionally, it highlights the mismatch between personal decision-making cycles and asset price cycles, where individuals may make significant purchasing decisions at market peaks [13]. Changing Assumptions - The article identifies three foundational assumptions that have changed: demographic trends showing a decline in birth rates affecting housing demand, economic shifts from high growth to moderate quality development impacting income levels, and a societal shift towards a more conservative outlook on financial stability [14][15][16][18]. Strategic Recommendations - The article advocates for a defensive financial strategy, suggesting the construction of financial redundancy by limiting mortgage payments to 30% of income and maintaining emergency savings to cover at least 12 months of expenses [22][23]. - It emphasizes the importance of not underestimating the long-term implications of a mortgage and making informed decisions rather than being influenced by external pressures [24].